Alexandru Georgescu

Economist, Research Fellow with the EURISC Foundation, studying geopolitics, international security issues and critical infrastructure protection, currently in a Ph.D. research program on the latter subject

The Mirage of the New American Expansionism

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 51, Jan.-Feb. 2025 Donald Trump has spent the last weeks before the start of his new term as US President throwing populist proposals left and right related to renaming landforms, annexing Canada, America’s ownership of the Panama Canal, and annexing Greenland. I would add to this populist trend the unrealistic proposal for NATO members to allocate 5% of GDP to defense, which serves as a bargaining chip for an acceptable level. This article aims to analyze the proposal for Panama and Greenland and to emphasize that, regardless of how realistic the non-violent and unforced annexation of these territories is, Americans have a complex strategic and historical perspective on these regions. This is not another Trump idiosyncrasy, but another case of Trump saying out loud what a faction of the American elites is thinking. The annexation of Canada does not seem credible to me in terms of the costs it would entail and the impact on American politics, and therefore represents only an attempt to bully former Prime Minister Trudeau in order to promote an ascendant pro-American right compatible with Trump. Only Alberta, among the regions with secessionist movements, would fit culturally with the United States and would have a chance of being a state compatible with Republicans and Trump’s conservative populism in the context of the political calculations that have always accompanied the debates about accepting new states. More

Trump’s Cabinet Is Taking Shape

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 50, Nov.-Dec. 2024 The transition process to the next Trump Administration will be a determining factor in its success, especially in the first hundred days, which is taken by Americans as an indicator of the future success of the Administration. Donald Trump has placed particular emphasis on preparing for a smooth transfer of power, trying to avoid the situation of 2016, when the Administration’s organizational problems and sabotage from the party he had taken over by force largely wasted the first two years of his term until he reached a compromise with the Republican nomenclature. At that time, thousands of positions in the Trump Administration remained vacant, with many potential employees fearing for their careers if they worked for the “danger to the republic”. Trump was forced to keep people from the Obama era on the roll, other key positions remained vacant for a very long time, and Trump appointed unsuitable people (we are not just talking about his family) due to a lack of options, affecting the ability to implement his agenda. This time, the Heritage Foundation, the first major think tank to side with Trump in 2016, trying to gain influence over him in this way, began two years ago to recruit thousands of people for a future Trump Administration. The “2025 Project” has sparked strong reactions, due to the very conservative ideological filters (of an American type) applied by the Heritage group to develop a Trump team. Even though Trump has disavowed any influence of this initiative on him personally, the stakes of those who implemented the project are that Trump’s need to secure thousands of employees in the Administration to implement the Trumpist agenda will push him to accept the Heritage package. Americans say that “personnel is policy”, because the President decides the broad lines and makes major specific decisions, but thousands of discretionary, administrative and regulatory decisions are made by the lower echelons, where a political inclination can be decisive. This very problem with Obama-era personnel and Republicans who were not loyal to the Trump agenda has tainted, dragged out, and sabotaged the first two years of the 2016-2020 term, if not the entire term. Because it is very difficult for us to observe personnel politics at the micro level, those who analyse the handover of the White House look at the proposals for the leadership of major departments and state agencies, trying to anticipate political disputes, policy preferences, and guidelines of the Administration. Trump’s choices have stirred controversy, especially for their radicalism, and anti-Trump observers hope that defectors from the Republican party, such as Rand Paul, will bridge the gap with Democrats to block certain figures, given Trump’s weak majority in the Senate, where the hearings will take place. For the rest of the world, the spectacle of the transition process to Trump represents an opportunity for an American “Kremlinology”, especially in relation to major international issues such as Ukraine, Israel or Taiwan. More

Habemus POTUS!

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 50, Nov.-Dec. 2024 After a decisive showdown that defied our expectations regarding the use of legal battles and allegations of fraud, Donald Trump emerged victorious in the US presidential race, becoming the second President of the United States (POTUS) to take a break between terms. The outcome was an anti-climax, as the vote went the way many polls and betting markets had predicted, with Trump winning by a clear popular and electoral college majority that could not easily be challenged. The financial disparities between the two candidates in favour of the Democrats could not compensate for Trump’s ability to communicate freely and charismatically with the crowd, and the Democrats failed to fully utilize the new campaign weapon, the political podcast, which surpasses traditional media in terms of audience. I don’t know if we can hope that this experience will make the Democratic Party rethink its flirtation with identitarian and economic extremism, or the way it let party cabals play games in removing Biden (who would have been a better presidential candidate) and selecting Harris, but Donald Trump managed to win record support from minorities and improve his score in absolutely all American counties. Kamala Harris has not managed to surpass Biden’s performance anywhere. But what will happen from 2025 on the external front? Will we witness a new Pax Americana or will the pessimism of the elites in the Euro-American mainstream come true? More

Behind the Reaction and Counter-Reaction in the Middle East

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 49, Sep.-Oct. 2024 The US announcement of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel has sparked fears of a long-awaited escalation to open warfare in the Middle East. However, that attack was similar in size and intensity to the one in April 2024, came at a time of day when casualties were minimized, and was calibrated not to pose very great challenges to Israel’s layered missile defense system, assisted by American and, it seems, British forces. More

Tim vs Jim: The Vice Presidential Debate Was the Revelation of the Election Season

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 49, Sep.-Oct. 2024 On October 1^st 2024, the debate between the vice-presidential candidates in the US election campaign took place. The event is important as part of the American democratic ritual that legitimizes the process by which a historically large and diverse but now also divided people accept a leader for a very powerful unified executive position. After two decades of continual delegitimization of American Presidents for tactical reasons of political infighting, the ritual has become even more important, as can be seen from the exuberance of the national conventions of the political parties and the unifying language that is used. More

The October Surprises Came Early

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 48, Jul.-Aug. 2024 In American politics, there is talk of the “October surprise”, an event that precipitates a spectacular reversal of the situation just before the presidential elections at the beginning of November, having the potential to radically change the outcome of the elections. After a prelude to the presidential race on autopilot, in which President Biden and former President Trump avoided primary debates and were their parties’ presumptive nominees with few expected surprises, July brought shocking events on both sides, that may change the course of the elections. Firstly, the June 26 early presidential debate precipitated a crisis of confidence in Joe Biden. Later, on the one hand, we have the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, resulting in one of the most powerful political images in modern history and precipitating a crisis of confidence in key organizations and a new Republican populist radicalization. On the other hand, Joe Biden announced, just a month before the Democratic National Convention that would have confirmed him as the candidate of the Party he leads for the American Presidency, that he is withdrawing from a role of candidate that he has tenaciously held onto and that he supports Kamala Harris as his successor. Donald Trump, meanwhile, picked a campaign partner with ideological weight as a promise to his supporters about his second-term commitment to the populist causes he launched but rarely followed through on. There are still more than three months until election night, and after such an inauspicious start to the real presidential campaign, we should not be surprised that the “October surprises” may keep on coming. More

Russia and China: The Limits of the Unlimited Partnership Have Not Been Reached Yet

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 47, May-Jun. 2024 The relationship between Russia and China is an important subject of debate for the West in the context of the war in Ukraine and of the invaluable support which China gives to Russia in order to hold its ground against the Western sanctions and to continue the fight against Ukraine. The two countries are, also, engaged in an ample project of organising the Global South and the major emerging economies (plus important non-aligned actors such as the United Arab Emirates and nominal US allies like Saudi Arabia) in structures parallel to the ones supposedly dominated by the West, capable of producing alternate governance models which mark the transition towards multipolarity. Under such conditions, could Western commentators hope for a moderate/-ing Chinese influence on Russia’s actions in Ukraine or for an eventual split between these two powers? More

Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing, in the US Elections

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 46, Mar.-Apr. 2024 The 2024 U.S. presidential election will play a pivotal role in determining the strategic direction to be taken by the United States of America. In any event short of a quick decline, the U.S. will remain the most active and multivalent superpower in the world, even in a multipolar paradigm. If for nothing else, then for its willingness and ability to subsidise its key partners’ security, as well as freedom of navigation and the Global Institutions which have, among other things, facilitated China and other revisionist actors’ ascent and development. Combined with the already decades-long ongoing and bipartisan tendency of power accumulation under the “Unified American Executive”, to the detriment of the U.S. Congress, the American elections would have already been of a crucial worldwide importance. Therefore, the Super Tuesday electoral marathon was closely analysed in the hopes that it could signal a “sea change” in the primary elections of the two parties, especially of the Republicans. Instead, the hopeful noises made by the national and global observers have proven to be in vain, as there was neither an out-of-nowhere spoiler contestant nor a consensus by the party camarillas to remove the aging gerontocrats of American politics. The electoral configuration for November 2024 seems to be that of Biden versus Trump, Biden being accompanied by Kamala Harris, while Trump is still keeping the vice-president seat empty in order to negotiate with certain ideological factions or owners of political machines in his favour. Donald Trump’s favourability indexes look very good and he appears to be the leading candidate in the race as long as the sequential legal challenges he faces won’t succeed in creating a precedent leading to the downfall of a favourite presidential candidate. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the apparent persecution of Trump appears to augment his support among the Republicans and independents, not to mention that voters who are motivated by a candidate’s “respectability” have not yet had enough reason to abandon him. From this standpoint, the Democrats who put forward lawfare options for “doing away with a danger to the Republic” appear to be “playing with fire”. More

The West’s Own Goal on Energy

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 45, Jan.-Feb. 2024 The various World Economic Forum reports speak of poly-crises and perma-crises, which act as powerful stressors on our societies. Their effect has been visible in the area of energy, which is fundamental for the effective functioning of our economic, social and political lives. The effects of the American invasions in the Middle East and the civil wars that broke out after the so-called Arab Spring (including the emergence of Daesh, the so-called Islamic State) have proven that an increasingly integrated global energy system is also prone to cascading effects as a result of crises in demand, supply or risk perception. In recent years, we have seen the effects of the pandemic, resulting in a shrinking and then increase in energy demand, and the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) had significant effects on perceptions of security of supply and markets. We may soon see an impact from Houthi rebel attacks on energy shipping traffic through the Gulf of Aden, much of it aimed at Europe. Disturbances in the global energy markets increase the prices of almost all products, implicitly also increase inflation, lower living standards, bury companies, especially in energy-intensive fields or with fossil fuels as inputs and often strategic (metallurgy, petrochemicals, arms industry). However, not all of these effects can be attributed to exogenous shocks. They are also the result of a mix of ideology, special interest groups, civil society organizations, which have pushed many Western countries towards counterproductive energy policies, including for the desired reduction of carbon emissions (decarbonization), which have ended up exacerbating energy insecurity in the West. Especially in the case of Europe, the recurring crises in the field of supply, sustainability, and accessibility of energy for large consumers will sharpen trends of Western deindustrialization. There will be four ripple effects – a reduced competitiveness of Europe on the global stage, the economic stagnation of Western Europe after 2008 (with small exceptions such as the Netherlands or the Nordics) becoming chronic, the vulnerability of the Energy Union (resulting in more frequent blackouts) and an inability of Europe to rise to challenges such as the production of munitions and other war materials. From Romania’s perspective, even if we will not face supply crises, we will suffer secondary effects of the economic weakness of our main economic partners. Also, as we have not yet seen a country that becomes developed in conditions of high energy access costs, we can ask the question whether Romania and other Eastern countries will be able to enter the club of the developed after the limits catch-up growth will be reached, and countries will face middle income traps, which can produce long-term economic stagnation. More

Biden Throws His Hat in the Ring

Alexandru Georgescu

No. 45, Jan.-Feb. 2024 President Joe Biden recently announced his intention to run for a second term as President. His detractors mocked him for a message that was both alarmist and emotional, as well as for the fact that it had been pre-recorded and scripted, like most of the media appearances of the oldest American leader. However, the Biden Campaign cannot be underestimated. Despite its weaknesses, potential legal hurdles, and questionable performances, the Democratic Party will rally behind him as the only notable candidate capable of defeating Trump or a Trumpist successor like DeSantis. More

The Trump Storm

Alexandru Georgescu

2022 and 2023 saw a large number of suits brought against Trump, some of them legally and others still in the court of public opinion, from where his critics hope they will move into the courthouse. These cover a bewildering array of charges, ranging from rape to defamation to campaign finance fraud, and from improper use and storage of classified materials to insurrection. What are the charges? Trump has been charged with 34 counts of falsifying documents related to payments made to women with whom he had sexual affairs in order to buy their silence. The main woman involved was the porn actress Stormy Daniels, whose case has been discussed since the beginning of Trump's tenure. The payments were made by Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, and were reimbursed from Trump organization funds marked as legal expenses. Normally, such actions, however disgraceful, would constitute a misdemeanor for which Trump would be fined, but Cohen was also well-positioned in Trump's campaign, and a visionary prosecutor made him declare, as part of Cohen's 2018 agreement with authorities regarding his personal financial crimes, that those payments represented a campaign contribution because Stormy Daniels' silence and the silence of the rest of Trump's “harem” facilitated his election as President, not just savi More

Azimuth, Romania

Octavian-Dragomir Jora, Alexandru Georgescu

The political-economic phrase “regional cooperation mechanisms” is dry enough that it brings in tow a serene attitude, which neither Romania’s voluptuous imaginaries, nor its immanent vicinities seem to pan out. Central and Eastern Europe, extruding towards the South East – the softly symbolic geographical notion which includes Romania –, has always possessed a lively geopolitical tectonic, prone to extremely brutal outbursts and worldmaking shifts (i.e., featuring as some hotspot for the two world wars), and a latent geoeconomic magnetism too (i.e., due to its fine resource pools and in spite of its dire infrastructures). These traits have remained somehow unchanged for centuries, only to be recurrently re-evaluated. More