Bogdan C. Enache

Political scientist, former business journalist, book reviewer; interested in politics, economics and the art of living

The Bear Stearns of Romania

Despite a lot of public rhetoric and noisy politics, the Romanian episode of the recent Great Financial Crisis has not been adequately chronicled to date.True, in Romania, a country with a low – but increasing – financialization rate by Western standards, there has not been any Lehman Brothers-style bankruptcy in the local banking industry. However, despite repeated public statements made, since the beginning of the Crisis, by Mugur Isărescu and other officials at the National Bank of Romania (BNR), that the Romanian financial system is crisis-proofed, there has actually been a Bear Stearns-type of failure not long after the global panic spread into the country as well. More

Romania’s “Sonderweg” to Illiberal Democracy

Bogdan C. Enache

In German historiography, there is a current of thought dating to the 19th century regarding a “special path” (Sonderweg) of political development in Germany or German settled areas. Its first incarnation was a positive one, underlying the German aptitude for social reform and development in the absence of dangerous pressures. After WW2, it became a way of explaining the rise of Nazism and retconning it as inevitable, thus making the leap from theory to tool for self-blame. This article argues that Romania is undergoing its own Sonderweg to illiberalism, based on local specificities of a political and structural nature. More

A Turkish Scenario for the Romanian Economy?

Bogdan C. Enache

Since the Social Democratic Party’s (PSD) ascent to power in 2012, which was sealed by the 2016 Romanian parliamentary and local elections, some commentators and opposition leaders have compared the actions of Social Democratic leaders – such as former PM Victor Ponta or party chairman and Chamber of Deputies President Liviu Dragnea – not only with those of their peers in Hungary and Poland, but also to those of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. More

Populism, Bank Tax Edition

Bogdan C. Enache

The Romanian government has approved, almost overnight, through an Emergency Government Ordinance, a new bank tax. The idea of imposing a special tax on banks is an old one and tends to resurface during times of financial crises. Thus, the bank tax was floated around by the Left and radical Left in the West, when the 2007/2008 Crisis began, from where it was most eagerly adopted and put into practice mainly by Eastern Europe’s Right-wing populists. The Crisis which began in 2007/2008 is now over and even the governments that have instituted a special bank levy, like the Hungarian and Polish governments, have now reduced it or plan to eliminate it. This is a first indication of how ill-thought and ill-advised this late decision of the Romanian Government to institute its own special bank tax really is. More

Can Trade Wars Be Good for the Economy?

Bogdan C. Enache

With the world economic community focused on US President Donald Trump’s acrobatics of escalating and deescalating trade battles, the question naturally arises if there’s actually any truth to his two-part statement, or tweet, that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”. Indeed, protectionism is an economic policy older than the science of Economics itself, but according to the classical theory of Smith and Ricardo it is just the oldest folly in the history of Economics. Modern neoclassical Economics incorporates and strongly validates the Smithian and Ricardian condemnation of protectionism, allowing deviations from it only in some exceptional and clearly specified situations. The explanation neoclassical Economics offers for the persistence of protectionism as a policy has changed however, replacing folly with a rational public choice theory of concentrated benefits for the beneficiaries and dispersed costs for those harmed. But is protectionism and its long history really just a folly? More

BNR’s Inflation Bias

Bogdan C. Enache

The National Bank of Romania’s (BNR) recent decision to leave its interest rate unchanged, despite inflation surpassing the 4% threshold, has been justified as a prudent decision in the face of international uncertainties with adverse effect on growth and “preemptive” rate cuts in several advance and emergent economies, but it is also a testimony to the Bank’s inflationary bias and even of its shaky real policy independence. More

How the Latest Trump Tariffs Will Affect Romania

Bogdan C. Enache

On March 1st, US President Donald Trump announced that his administration will unilaterally introduce new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in the United States of America. Officially motivated by national security concerns under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the announcement follows a similar decision to unilaterally introduce new tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, for reasons of unfair competition, taken at the end of January. Along with pressures for a redrawing of the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada and the retreat from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the decision constitutes the most palpable expression to date of the United States’ new protectionist trade policy, to which Donald Trump alluded to since he was campaigning on an “America first” platform for the White House back in 2016. But unlike the solar panels and washing machines tariffs of a month and a half ago, which targeted primarily Chinese, South Korean and other Asian economies, the new steel and aluminum tariffs risk triggering a full-scale trade war with the European Union’s – still – 28 nations trade bloc, Romania included. More

Romania’s Anti-Communist Straussianism

Bogdan C. Enache

The decision of the Bucharest Court of Justice on Friday, September 20th 2019, to uphold the verdict issued in May by the National Council for the Study of the Archives of the “Securitate” (CNSAS) regarding former President Traian Băsescu’s collaboration with the Communist regime’s secret police has been received with a sense of avenged satisfaction on the part of his long-time critics and adversaries. This was doubled by a feeling of avowed surprise on the part of his most loyal and ardent supporters. Neither of these opposite attitudes is however justified by a careful analysis of the country's recent politics. More

The Curious Case of the Romanian Yield Curve

Bogdan C. Enache

The single biggest evidence in favour of a recession looming on the horizon, which is on the lips of every single pundit in advanced economies at present, is an atypical relationship between the yields of government bonds of different maturities, called the inversion of the curve. Short term government borrowing has become more expensive than long term government borrowing, which goes against basic tenets of economic theory such as time preference. This atypical relationship between long term and short term maturities is thought to predict a recession, because the only reason why borrowing would become more expensive in the short run than in the long run seems to be a flight on the part of creditors to safe, highly liquid and easy to exchange assets, which pushes up demand for the near-end of the curve, and a pessimistic growth outlook for the future, which pushes down demand for the far end of the curve. In the United States, the model-economy in this regard, the inversion of the curve has so far predicted every recession in the last decades. More

An International Auction for Romanian Wild Brown Bears

Bogdan C. Enache

In late August 2017, the Romanian Government, through the Ministry for the Environment, decided to allow the shooting of 140 brown bears in the Carpathian Mountains as an administrative measure to curb the bear population in the country, which in some areas is threatening peasant livestock and even the safety of town dwellers. Although the Government backpedalled on its decision in the face of strong pressure from the public and conservationist groups – who accused it of giving in to the hunting industry’s lobby and spurious bear population statistics –, ultimately reaffirming its ban on the trophy hunting of bears and other protected species in the country, it is worth reflecting on how economics can balance public and private interests in the management and conservation of wildlife. More

Corruption as Bad Governance

Bogdan C. Enache

The issue that has polarized, more than any other, Romanian politics and Romanian society for the last decade and a half is the subject of Alina Mungiu-Pipidi’s book, “The Quest for Good Governance: How Societies Develop Control of Corruption”, Cambridge University Press, 2015 (translated in Romanian by Ioana Aneci as “În căutarea bunei guvernări: cum au scăpat alte țări de corupție”, Polirom, 2017). More

Inflation Surpassing Populism

Bogdan C. Enache

In a Europe locked-in below-target inflation, for the most part, one country basically surpasses all others. Romania managed to almost triple its inflation rate one month into the New Year, after a brief – and unique period in the last quarter century or so – when the headline figure was actually negative. What’s behind this astonishing success, or not such a success after all? More