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Ukraine 2030. A Doctrine for Sustainable Development
An analysis of the declared strategies and the current economic model of Ukraine indicates that the outdated socio-economic and political paradigm is a key issue that prevents the country from reaching the horizons of balanced development and is reducing Ukraine to the level of a raw material appendage to the developed countries. More
The Absorption of Uncertainty and Exiting from the Pandemic
The individuals (and, to some extent, the groups) make decisions based on their perception regarding the future, rather than on a rigorous calculus based on accurate models of rationality (such a conclusion has long been reached by the researchers, and, very curiously, even by some economists!). The perceptions are, in fact, an inextricable mix between information, experience and expectations. And, of course, all of the three ingredients are tinged with uncertainty. Uncertainty is very different from risk – while we can assign to the risk some probability distributions in order to “know” it at least probabilistically, this cannot be done with uncertainty – an obvious clarification given by Frank Knight almost a century ago. Even more, the question of uncertainty in the decision process arises when the public decision-making is involved because: More
Global Initiatives and Supply Chains
The security of global supply chains is a topic that the global public is actively debating for the first time since the OPEC crisis of 1973.There have been incidents since then that have highlighted the vulnerabilities produced by this stage of globalization, but none with universal and widespread impact until the coronavirus pandemic, which was followed up by the war in Ukraine starting in February 2022 and the sanctions levied against Russia. Two contradictory phenomena occurred during the pandemic – on the one hand, border closures and measures to reserve domestic production of medical supplies and equipment produced supply crises. On the other side, when restrictions were eased, global transportation thawed and the economy recovered, several nations experienced a crisis in both domestic and global logistical capacity (the USA and the UK being the best-known cases). Notable recent examples from 2020-2022 include: the oil tanker crisis waiting off the US coast due to a lack of oil storage capacity in the context of declining demand (leading to negative oil prices in futures markets); the international freight transport capacity crisis; the semiconductor crisis, which forced production cuts in the automotive industry, including in Romania; the raw materials crisis for the pharmaceutical industry, felt for example in India; the plastics production crisis; domestic fuel and freight supply crises in countries such as the UK; US problems in unloading container ships and ensuring multimodal transport, etc. There are several causes for these events, including government restrictions, consumer elasticity, the influence of economic uncertainty on business decisions to cut back on transportation fleets (especially road freight), the pandemic’s effects on employee health, and more. They all have one thing in common: the pandemic’s role as a persistent source of uncertainty and a force disrupting international and domestic economic connections. More
Photon(e)s 2.0
“There is no story. It’s just a question of shapes and light”, Harry Gruyaert says. And, indeed, this is an example of how, despite the fact the human beings are always craving hidden stories and explanations, these are not always necessary. Sit down, breath in and just look at the colors, shapes and the way the light comes in. More
Russia’s Return to the Middle East
The American President, Donald Trump, recently announced his intentions to negotiate with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar to rethink their stated intentions of purchasing military equipment from the Russian Federation.David Schenker, a candidate for Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, was quoted by Reuters that he “would work with our allies to dissuade them, or encourage them, to avoid military purchases that would be potentially sanctionable”. More
Defined Contribution Pensions, But Not Really
From a theoretical (and philosophical) point of view, the (defined contribution) pension in a pay-as-you-go system is an impersonal, non-coexistent, inter-generational, and mandatory quid pro quo. The referee which must assure that the quid pro quo is respected is the state (we have here a nice example of a hard core of public interest which would be desirable to be extended to others, i.e. national interests). As it is inter-generationally applied, such a “social contract” faces some accidents, some of which are objective, others not quite. For example, a current generation “i”, is paying social contributions during its active life to the generation „i-1” – I will do not complicate the discussion by taking into account that, in fact, there is an overlapping of generations both as paying social contributions and as benefiting from defined-contribution pensions (this would be useful if done for the public finance decision). In turn, the current generation “i” (which is the future “i+1” retired generation) will benefit for its pensions from the social contributions paid by generation “i+1”, and so on. This mechanism seems to provide a roughly fairness, because the pensions are calculated based on the effective social contributions paid during the active (that is, economically productive) life. Rawls, as pure contractarian, would say it should be designed and implemented in the legislative stage of making the social contract, not in the original position. Below, I ask myself whether such fairness is really effective and, if not, how we should to proceed. The discussion is inherently coupled to the debates regarding the increasing of the pensions in Romania. I will do not discuss the (judicial) fact that a normative act which was already been constitutionally enacted by the legislative authority leaves, I think, an extremely narrow room, if any, for doubts regarding its implementation, but, instead, I will deal with only some very simple economic and social questions (more exactly, of social justice). More
Breaking the Long Truce
The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element of democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the ruling power of our country.[1] – Edward Bernays, 1928Ressentiment is directed at something which at the deepest level of his being the individual recognizes as good. Although there may be evil mixed with it (as in the sinful preacher), it is not the evil which is hated primarily but the good. Dwelling on the evil is ressentiment’s ploy for attacking the good.[2] – James Hitchcock, c. 1983 More
Not Too Young to Perform
If young people are not too young to get married, to serve in the military or to choose those who represent them in different government capacity, then they are “Not Too Young to Run”.Diversity is needed to create a great team and, if we do not bring women and youth aboard, then we are limiting the country’s competitiveness. To start with, what Nigeria needs at this point in time is inclusive growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ 2016 data, youth represent 50.2% of the total labor force in Nigeria. Hence, by restricting them from the country’s policy formulation and implementation, the country is not likely to attain its economic potential. More
The Romanian Government’s Underwhelming Response to the COVID-19 Crisis
The Romanian Government’s response to the COVID-19 crisis has nothing exceptional, no original idea, no single individualized policy, no special or particular focus. If Sweden, no matter how controversial, dared to pursue an individualized strategy of keeping the country open so as to achieve a higher degree of immunity as well as minimize economic loss and social distress, or if Germany implemented a swift search-and-clean infection-cluster policy followed-up by an effective intensive care capacity and real-time viral research, Romania has simply copy-pasted some broad European and World Health Organization lockdown guidelines to stop the contagion risk. There is no active – in some cases even experimental – strategy, no special health care crisis unit, no real-time research and goal-oriented policy – just a rather ridiculously named “Group of Strategic Communication”, made up mostly of police and intelligence officers, which releases some basic statistics concerning the number of people infected, those hospitalized, confined or dead to some press outlets and, with long lags, publishes them on the website of Ministry of Internal Affairs. More
Inflation Is Back: What Is to Be Done?
The pressing matter of inflation is once again on the minds of the citizens and the National Bank of Romania (NBR), whose goal is to preserve and maintain price stability. Over the previous year, inflation has dramatically risen. It continues to include a significant external component, amplified by the economic consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine, most notably the sharp increases in the price of energy and raw materials. Over the last couple of months, inflation has intensified and spread, leading to it eventually being internalised. As a consequence, the normalisation of monetary policy is necessary. More
The Quality of Nigeria’s Capital Imports
A saying has it that numbers do not lie, however the parameters behind the numbers might be somewhat misleading. The first quarter of 2018 saw a continuous growth in total capital importation into Nigeria, the fourth consecutive quarterly increase since Q2 2017. The total value of capital imported in the quarter stood at $6.3 billion, which is a year-on-year “YoY” increase of 594.03% and 17.11% growth quarter-on-quarter “QoQ”. This increase in capital inflow in Q1 2018 was mainly driven by portfolio investment, which grew from $3.5 billion in the previous quarter to $4.6 billion, accounting for 72.42% of the total capital importation during the quarter. More
A New Silk Road – Russia’s Position
The first version of the Silk Road is placed by analysts at the beginning of the westward expansion of the Han Dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD). Chinese products (silk, porcelain, spices or other goods) that were highly prized began to be delivered to Europe, with the Chinese importing precious metals, glass and other products in return. Trade routes were plied by caravans connecting to Europe through Central Asia. This region gradually became the epicenter of the first wave of globalization, which made it possible for the area to connect remote regions, generate prosperity and connect very complex cultural and religious traditions. The impressive economic growth and increased openness to the external environment that China registered in the latter part of the 20th century and in the first two decades of the 21st century, focused on export-led industrialization, brought China the resources and vision to consider the necessity of investing new trade routes. Paradigm shifts have also occurred at the political level, with China's top leadership publicly presented in 2013 the concept of a “New Silk Road” (morphed into the currently named Belt and Road Initiative through the addition of a Maritime Belt) as a complex and ambitious logistics network consisting of ports, railways and highways, supporting infrastructure, as well as oil or natural gas pipelines that will sustainably connect China with the states of Europe and East Africa. The EU has since become China’s largest trading partner. More
