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Future Tense in the Job Market
Lately, in the community of futurists and the subgroup of Economics scholars / freaks, a theory or, better yet, a slogan has emerged, in support of the idea of the acceleration of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0), based on automation, interconnections between machines and Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Internet of Things (IoT). According to this saying, expressed in a similar form by Martin Boehm in 2017, “4 of 5 jobs of the year 2025 have not yet been created”, which can be translated as 80% of the future (types of) jobs in the next 6 years do not exist today. Therefore, the statement is qualitative before being quantitative. This brief essay breaks this idea down to see if it holds water. We do contest neither the transformation of economy towards automated production, nor the growing impact of AI in present and future jobs. What is indeed put under scrutiny is the pace of adoption, on a large scale, of these technologies. More
CAPITOL LETTERS (Ep. 10): Samuel F.B. Morse, the Janusian Creator
“What hath God wrought?”, the Biblical wonder in the face of divine creation, was spelled out by a creative man of science and of art, a man of faith, as well as of feud. Samuel F.B. Morse by his name, the founding father, in the electro-magnetic “field” of the Industrial Revolution, of the present-day USD 6 trillion global information and communications technology sector (ICT), aired these words, in the code bearing his name, in the first telegraph transmission on May 24, 1844. What at that time linked Baltimore to Washington, now connects an entire planet in a variety of ways, of which the Metaverse is the latest mutation. And whilst for many the Metaverse was a concept formerly confined to Sci-Fi which is now coming true, resembling some sort of “second life”, few know that the invention of the telegraph occurred during Morse’s… second life. Yet, it is not the kind of parallel existence that Meta is offering us, but a life that was the second in a chronological series of two lives, of which fine arts occupied the first 46 of his 81 years on Earth. In 1837, Morse surrendered, deeply disappointed, from the artistic front, only to enter immediately the “tech” battlefield. More
Some Thoughts on the Criteria of Nominal Economic Convergence in the EU
In connection with the nominal economic convergence criteria, five comments can be made: a) on their completeness; b) on their representativeness; c) on their relevance (meaning); d) on their redundancy (non-synergy); e) on their effectiveness. More
Give Us, God, Our Daily Experts (Part II)
I continue now with the other remaining two classes of incompetency (or, equally, of incompetents), which give themselves the high title of expert. In other places and moments, I have spoken about the conceptual distinction between the politician (expert of purpose) and the expert (politician of means). Therefore, I wait for an expert to pronounce his/her opinion about the means (ways, strategies, programs, and so on) able to objectify purposes that, themselves, are proposed by politicians. Unfortunately, (too) many politicians talk about means, as well as (too) many experts talk about purposes. Although, of course, it doesn’t exist such a categorical separation between politicians from experts – so there is not a net line between the two categories –, thus, it is a good thing that everyone be careful to talk about its „reserved” field. More
State Role vs. State Size
In modern society, the state remains the central element of political power and an essential factor in the sustainable development of a country. Together with its institutions, the state responds to emerging changes in society by multiplying its functions to ensure economic growth and to address a large part of the social needs it feels the need to manage. More
From Apollo to Artemis and Beyond
I consider human curiosity and quest for knowledge to be the main element that propels space exploration. We want to know what lies beyond the limits of our planet, beyond the limits of our solar system, beyond the limits of our galaxy, and to discover the mysteries of the Universe. We want to discover worlds similar to ours, and to understand where we come from and where we are going to, what cosmic events and what dangers await us in the near, distant and very distant future. Where can we start, besides just the observation of the sky? From the closest celestial bodies to our Earth, and the closest one is the Moon. More
The Return of Microeconomics
The recent launch of the English version of the seminal study “Some Microeconomic Landmarks of the Transition Process in Romania” by Prof. Cezar Mereuță is an important step in the process of exposing the notable work of Romanian scholars to their peers abroad.The initial Romanian edition appeared in 2015 and crowned 17 years of research into the structure of 1,009 markets between 1995 and 2012. His work is not only a peerless assessment of the developmental history of the Romanian economy post-transition, but a valuable work of microeconomics in its own right. More
CAPITOL LETTERS (Ep. 9): The Green New Deals Tango
It is currently common sense (regardless of the amount of actual sense) to proselytize the teachings of “climate-changes-caused-by-man-and-to-be-reversed-also-by-man”. Before long, “Dubito” will be summarily excised from René Descartes’ famous witticism, which will suddenly become more laconic (as well as lacking in meaning, apparently) and will go like this: “I think (that something might exist), therefore it exists”! Then, we may get down to business: taxes, subsidies and regulations. Thus, we have the cocktail, the cool panacea brewed by the “majores terrae” (the planet’s greatest, in literal translation), served to a world stuck in the heat of the developments following the First Industrial Revolution. In the name of progress, we need to help temperatures regress back to pre-industrial levels, and we need to do so by “decarbonizing the green economy” and by socially just taxes. More
The Passions of France
Monday, April 15th 2019, was the third day of the Holy Week for Catholic Christians, the week that commemorates the Passion of Jesus Christ preceding His crucifixion and resurrection. The day followed another weekend of protests in France, when 30,000 people demonstrated in several major French cities against President Emmanuel Macron. It is therefore a most unfortunate coincidence that, on that day, one of France’s most recognisable monuments, the 850-year old Cathedral of Notre-Dame, caught fire and was nearly destroyed before the fire was eventually put out some 15 hours later. The cathedral’s spire was completely wrecked by the flames, and the building suffered notable structural damage; some of the artefacts stored within it were touched by fire and smoke to varying degrees. The incident took France and the world at large by storm, drawing strong reactions from the general public as well as from celebrities and world leaders. It did not take long for some of France’s wealthiest personalities to pledge vast sums to the reconstruction of the cathedral, while president Macron promised to rebuild the cathedral within five years. More
The Theory of Inflation Expectations on Trial
The concept of expectations has, arguably, been the crown jewel of contemporary macroeconomics. In itself, it represents roughly half of all so-called “micro-foundations” innovations that distinguishes modern macroeconomics from its Keynesian origins. Incorporated into economic modelling beginning with the 1970s, it is the theory of expectations more than anything else that basically lays the foundation for modern-day central bank policy which – until a decade or so ago – seemed to have finally mastered the ups and downs of the economy. Inflation targeting, policy guidance, transparency, commitment, credibility, time consistency and so on are just another way of saying the successful central banks manage the economy by managing expectations. Thoughts are future actions and words can shape reality before it even comes into being, altering 19th century style classical causality – this is in a nutshell the Sci-Fi appeal and semiotic charm of a concept that undergirds current economic theory! Recent economic events has put the theory of expectations to the test like never before, but the outcomes are far from satisfactory. More
Blood Is Thicker than Oil: The Throes of Venezuela’s Crisis
As the smoking gun of Venezuela’s unrest clears away, onlookers wonder whether it is about to be holstered back or cocked for another shot. To most observers, the socio-political crisis in Venezuela came as a big surprise, as if out of nowhere. Owing perhaps to its remote geographic location and the prominence of more spectacular geopolitical events, it is easy to overlook the fact that we are not speaking about a recent outbreak. Instead, the current presidential scandal is but the very latest addition to a long-lasting crisis that began somewhere in 2010 due to economic shortages and worsened with the upheaval of the existing political equilibrium following the death of long-standing president, Hugo Chávez, in 2013. Venezuela has been a powder keg for nearly a decade, as the country’s unsustainable oil-reliant economy has shown its unfortunate limits, which were further compounded by the government’s ineffectual policies, strongly influenced by the anti-Western leanings common to both Chávez and current president Nicolás Maduro. More
CAPITOL LETTERS (Ep. 8): Profit to the People!
“Profit to the People!”. But not by taking from (i.e., taxing) Peter in order to give to (i.e., to spend on) Paul (or putting it more bluntly, “robbing Peter to pay Paul”), but by letting Peter being Paul’s partner, employer or employee, supplier or customer and, if there is no other way out, benevolent benefactor in times of hardship. The American economics-&-business way of thinking mirrors the second part of the phrase. Except for the periods when the Democrats take over the power from the Republicans at the White House and/or the Capitol. At the National Museum of American History, there is an 8,000-square-foot space covering the role of business and innovation in building America as we know it today in the last 300 years. Called “American Enterprise”, it hosts, besides exhibits amongst the most prominent practical offshoots of the US-borne ingenuity and inventiveness, some billboards covered with condensed tribulations reflecting the competing narratives grouped under the heading “Debating Enterprise”. This reminded me of an article published two years ago, entitled “«Mens Sana in Sound Corporations»: A Principled Reconciliation between Profitability and Responsibility, with a Focus on Environmental Issues” (authors: Octavian-Dragomir Jora, Matei-Alexandru Apăvăloaei, Vlad I. Roșca, and Mihaela Iacob), where we argued that corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the creation and running of for-profit organizations are not two distinct objectives that are at odds with one another, but complementary, even co-generative ones. Briefly put (for the detailed expose see the article here), we found (at least) three lines of defense in the attempt to rediscover (not to “re-invent”!) the common-sense (“wheel”) that moves forward a basic truth: “the generous have to be let to generate (wealth)”. More
