November Revealed the Highest Number of New Cases Worldwide Since the Start of the New Coronavirus Pandemic
The most powerful 19 countries in the world had different evolutions regarding the number of new cases in the third quarter of the pandemic.
November 30 marked 9 months since March 1, considered the beginning of pandemic with the novel coronavirus. Tables 1 and 2 show the monthly figures and daily averages of new cases during the September - November period and the October / September, November / October and November / September volume indices.
While in October as compared to September the volume index of the daily averages of new cases reached 1.3873, the November / October volume index increased to 1.4572, so that the November / September volume index reached 2.0216! The daily average of number of new cases in September was 284,075.6 and in November climbed up to 574,218.5.
The behaviours of the 19 countries regarding the dynamics of the number of new cases during September - November were identified by the comparative analysis of the ranks, presented below.
I recall that in our previous article we presented a model that largely characterizes the efficiency in the field of reducing the number of new cases.
The model uses a reference size that consists of the average value of global new cases per 1 million inhabitants.
For each country, the number of new cases per million is calculated, then is divided by the world average and is denoted by R. Two situations may be found.
- The situation when R exceeds unit. It indicates the inefficiency of the government's program to reduce the number of new cases as compared to the world average.
- The situation when R is below unit. It indicates the effectiveness of government programs to reduce the number of new cases as compared to the world average.
The summary of November 30 is:
The above-mentioned comparative analysis is presented in Table 3.
In the first column of the table, the countries are ranked in descending order of the November values of the R indicator. The following 2 columns show the number of new cases and the values of the R index, ranked in descending order. The following column presents the values of the R indicator from August 31st and the next column the rank in the August hierarchy. The last column shows the difference between the ranks registered in November and the ones registered in August, with the following meaning:
- The positive difference signals trends to improve efficiency;
- The negative difference signals trends of worsening efficiency.
- 0 has the significance of stationary situation.
The analysis of data in Table 3 provides conclusions of maximum relevance, among which we mention:
- The strengthening the position of USA as the “leader” of the 19 countries in terms of inefficiency in the field of reducing the number of new cases, expressed by increasing the difference between the values of the R indicator in August and in November (as compared to Brazil and Spain). The average daily number of detected new cases in the USA increased from 41,000 in September to 63,000 in October and to 120,000 in November, with maximum values of 180,000! It is easy to see the seriousness of the situation that appeared in November, after the presidential elections on November 3rd. The explanation may lie Trump Administration's refusal to accept the election result, which has led to the blocking of actions to reduce contamination, as well as the impossibility of developing a concrete and coherent economic recovery plan. The current situation will continue at least until December 14th, when the College of Electors nominates the new president.
- A significant increase in the inefficiency of the Western European countries. With the exception of the United Kingdom, all other countries registered negative values between the two hierarchies. It is unfortunate that Germany has passed from a state of efficiency on August 31st to a significant state of inefficiency on November 30th.
- A special case of positive evolution is Brazil, with a continuous decrease in the daily average from 30,000 in September to 23,000 in October and to 19,000 in November. The dynamics of these values led to a decreasing trend of inefficiency, materialized by gaining three ranks in the tendency to reduce inefficiency. However, one cannot discount the reality that the accuracy of this analysis is dependent on state capacity in testing the population, processing tests and collating data for transparent transmission to international organizations and news outlets.
- The previous consideration should also be kept in mind for India, which has experienced the most spectacular decrease in the number of new cases in the third quarter. Ranked on the 31st of August in the efficiency zone, India was threatened with imminent transition to the inefficiency zone if it had continued with the daily averages of 87,000 new cases in September. The firm measures taken by the New Delhi government have led to the reduction of the daily average to 60,000 in October and 34,000 in November! These results led to maintaining India on November 30th in the area of efficiency.
- It is worth noticing the trends of reducing inefficiency of Saudi Arabia and Mexico, with a gain of 6 and 5 ranks, respectively, in the comparative analysis by rank.
A continuation of this article and its analysis will be published around March 5th, when I will present the annual picture of the effectiveness of government programs on reducing the new cases, as well as the degree of concentration of global new cases at yearly level.