Rising Temperatures and Rising Extremism
The political temperature is rising within the European Union. The political landscape within the European Union is currently undergoing a significant transformation, characterized by a noticeable increase in extremist ideologies. This shift is particularly evident among the younger generation, who are becoming increasingly disenchanted with traditional political parties and with yesteryear radicals like the Greens. The established political order, which was once viewed as the foundation of stability and progress, is now being challenged by movements that promise radical change.
This phenomenon highlights a deeper dissatisfaction with the existing state of affairs and a yearning for more immediate and tangible solutions to the pressing issues of our time. In the face of mounting economic inequality, climate change, and social unrest, young Europeans are actively seeking alternatives that align more closely with their values and lived experiences. Extremist groups, spanning both the far left and far right of the political spectrum, provide a sense of identity and purpose that traditional parties appear to lack. Simultaneously, ecological movements driven by the urgent need to address environmental degradation still attract some young individuals who believe that conventional politics has failed to adequately respond to the climate crisis (for example in Belgium, Gen Z and Millennials still prefer the Greens over the Flemish Interest).
The “green” forecast: shaping Europe
In recent years, the European Union has positioned itself at the forefront of international efforts to combat climate change. This prominence has been achieved through the implementation of transformative policy measures, including the establishment of ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, the phased elimination of internal combustion engines, the promotion of ecological restoration initiatives, and efforts to diminish the environmental impact of agricultural practices. The green political movements across the 27 EU member states have been instrumental in shaping and advancing this comprehensive agenda.
The establishment of the European Green Party on 22 February 2004 was a landmark event in European political history. Formed during the 4th Congress of the European Federation of Green Parties in Rome, this coalition of 34 pan-European Member Parties marked a transformative moment in the evolution of European political parties (European Greens, 2024). As the first political federation to transition into a fully-fledged European Political Party, the EGP signaled a new era of political coordination and unity focused on addressing the diverse needs and aspirations of European citizens.
The EGP’s formation was driven by a desire to consolidate the various Green parties across Europe into a single political entity. This strategic unification aimed to enhance the Green Party’s influence at the European level. The immediate goal was to leverage this newly founded unity in the 2004 European Parliament elections, marking the first instance of a coordinated, pan-European electoral campaign. The establishment of the EGP set the stage for a new approach to European politics, characterized by centralized coordination and collaboration (Carter, 2010, p. 301). This strategic shift involved formulating common policy positions, crafting shared election manifestos, and standardizing campaign strategies across member states. These efforts were designed to amplify the Green Party’s political impact and strengthen its role within the European Parliament. Since its inception, the EGP has continuously evolved to enhance its political influence. This evolution includes the development of robust organizational structures that facilitate collaboration among Green politicians and the establishment of networks to support joint initiatives. The EGP’s ability to adapt and expand has been crucial in maintaining and increasing its influence within the European Parliament.
The EGP’s impact on European climate policy has been notable, such as the European Green Deal, which aims to make Europe the world’s first climate-neutral continent. Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, Ursula von der Leyen successfully secured a majority in the Parliament for her second term as President of the European Commission on July 18. Her reappointment is critical for EU climate policy, as she has made significant commitments to advance the European Green Deal. This commitment was part of her negotiation strategy with the Greens/EFA group, whose support was crucial for her re-election (Pearson et al, 2024).
Boiling point: the rise of extremism in Europe
The rise of extremism in Europe can be attributed to multiple challenges. One of the most important is a prevailing economic dissatisfaction and inequality. The continent has faced significant economic challenges in the last twenty years, such as the global financial crisis of 2008, the subsequent Eurozone crisis, the war in Ukraine and the COVID pandemic. These crises have had a lasting impact on Europe’s economic structure, leading to high levels of structural unemployment, particularly among young people (in 2023, 11.2 % of 15-29 year-olds in the EU were neither in employment nor in education and training), lower financial attainment, and widening income gaps (the top 10% of the population in the continent possess67% of the wealth, whereas the lower half of adults possess 1.2% of it), combined with pressure on social spending leading to less generous welfare regimes or worse access to things like public health services.
The resulting economic insecurity has bred resentment towards established political leaders, who are seen as disconnected from the everyday struggles of the populace. For instance, consider the British government’s conduct during the COVID pandemic, where officials were observed engaging in private gatherings and undertaking personal travel across the nation without facing any consequences. Or when the French President, Emmanuel Macron, suggested to a young jobseeker that finding a job would be easy if he simply “crossed the street”, it was widely interpreted as a dismissive remark towards the challenges that many individuals, especially the youth, encounter in the job market.
This environment of economic discontent has created fertile ground for extremist organizations to flourish. By capitalizing on the grievances of those marginalized by globalization and economic deregulation, these groups offer oversimplified solutions to complex issues, pledging to bring back jobs, strengthen social welfare, and safeguard domestic industries. However, this economic narrative often comes hand in hand with a nationalist and xenophobic agenda, scapegoating immigrants and minority groups for the economic challenges faced by the native population.
The issue of social fragmentation and identity politics is closely linked with economic discontent. The rapid influx of immigrants and refugees in many European countries has reshaped the social fabric, sparking cultural and security anxieties and concerns about a loss of national identity. These concerns have been amplified by high-profile terrorist attacks and instances of immigrant-related crime, sensationalized by certain media outlets. Extremist groups have exploited these fears, promoting an exclusionary and often racist/xenophobic narrative that depicts immigrants and minorities as threats to the cultural and social unity of the nation. This narrative strikes a chord with individuals who feel marginalized by cultural shifts and view themselves as guardians of their national identity. Consequently, we are witnessing the emergence and success of far-right parties (AfD, Brothers of Italy, Vox, AUR, Fidesz) most of them advocating anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, and, in rare instances for the most successful ones, anti-Semitic ideologies.
Strong wind against the Greens
Due to these factors, both the social-democratic, liberal and green political parties have experienced a decline in countries like Italy, Germany, and France (the powerhouses of Europe), while the far right and far left have gained momentum. It is evident that the European agenda, as perceived by the general public, has transitioned from prioritizing the fight against climate change to addressing more immediate and tangible issues such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Near East, the rising cost of living, and immigration.
Despite facing opposition from far-right parties that prioritize economic concerns over environmental issues, the Greens’ commitment to sustainability has resonated with a substantial segment of the electorate, particularly younger voters. Despite this, recent European Parliament elections have seen a decline in Green representation, with the number of seats falling from 74 in 2019 to 53. The Greens have faced increased scrutiny and resistance to key initiatives, such as the phase-out of combustion engine cars and the ban on new gas boilers. The growing success of nationalist and far-right parties has introduced new challenges for the EGP (Financial Times, 2024). These parties have leveraged economic concerns and backlash against green policies to gain traction, while centre-right parties have eroded the support of the Greens by integrating a significant portion of their agenda into their own policies. This shift has complicated the Green Party’s efforts to advance its political fortunes.
As the European Parliament becomes more polarized, the Green Party faces critical strategic decisions. The centre-right European People’s Party, likely to be the largest group in the new Parliament, may seek alliances with far-right factions, potentially threatening the Green Deal’s ambitious climate targets. Looking ahead, the Greens are planning to focus on ambitious climate goals, including a proposal to achieve climate neutrality by 2040, a decade earlier than the current target. This ambition contrasts with the EPP’s reluctance to commit to a firm 2040 target.
Forgive me, Marx, for I have bought!
The lack of success experienced by Green parties in these elections can be partially attributed to their failure to address the immediate concerns of the general electorate. While the importance of environmental sustainability cannot be understated, many voters prioritize more pressing issues such as economic stability, healthcare, and education. In countries grappling with high unemployment rates or economic downturns, citizens may be more focused on job creation and economic recovery rather than long-term environmental strategies. The Green parties’ concentration on environmental matters often appears disconnected from these urgent socio-economic challenges, creating a perception that they are out of sync with the everyday struggles of the common people. This disconnect is reflected in election outcomes where, despite the increasing awareness of climate issues, Green parties struggle to garner significant voter backing compared to parties that give more prominence to economic and social concerns.
Furthermore, the Greens frequently advocate for ecological solutions that centre on individual actions rather than systemic transformations, alienating potential supporters. The Green parties were unable to demonstrate that their suggestions were more than just costly, anti-development measures that would disproportionately impact the most vulnerable members of society. Campaigns encouraging individuals to reduce their carbon footprints through actions like recycling, using public transport, or consuming less meat place the responsibility for environmental protection on individuals. This approach is viewed as overlooking the role of large corporations and governmental policies in driving environmental harm. For instance, while promoting the use of reusable bags by individuals is beneficial, it does not effectively address the broader problem of plastic pollution stemming from industrial practices and inadequate regulatory frameworks. The emphasis on personal responsibility leads to frustration among voters who believe their efforts are insignificant in the face of uncontrolled corporate pollution and ineffective government policies (just 100 companies are responsible for 71% of global greenhouse gas emissions). A more successful approach would involve advocating for comprehensive regulatory reforms, corporate responsibility, and government-led initiatives that target the root causes of environmental degradation.
Climate of opportunity: will the Green Party revive?
The Green Party has a unique opportunity to regain its influence when the tides of populism recede and global conflicts stabilize. Despite being temporarily overshadowed by other political crises, the pressing issue of climate change remains a constant threat that will eventually return to the forefront of public consciousness. Historical patterns indicate that periods of political and economic stability provide an opportunity to reassess long-term policy goals, particularly in terms of environmental sustainability. Electoral victories, such as Nicu Ștefănuță’s in Romania, are promising for a resurgence for the Green movement. His successful campaign as an independent serves as evidence that people want to vote green, even in Eastern countries such as Romania. As the political landscape evolves, the Green Party’s success in advancing its agenda will depend on its ability to adapt and respond to emerging challenges and opportunities.
Photo source: PxHere.
References
Carter, N. (2010) “The Greens in the 2009 European parliament election”, Environmental Politics, 19(2), pp. 295–302. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/09644010903576926.
European Greens (2023) History. Available at: https://europeangreens.eu/history/.
Financial Times (2024) Europe’s green backlash. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/eb9ea439-47e0-417d-a035-9a61109d4c44.
Green Party (2024) Our 2024 general election manifesto. Available at: https://greenparty.org.uk/about/our-manifesto/.
Pearson, M. et al. (2024) Why green parties remain key players after the 2024 European Parliament elections, London School of Economics. Available at: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2024/07/22/why-green-parties-remain-key-players-after-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/.